"Black Death, pandemic that ravaged Europe between 1347 and 1351, taking a proportionately greater toll of life than any other known epidemic or war up to that time."
"There were recurrences of the plague in 1361–63, 1369–71, 1374–75, 1390, and 1400."
Britannica.com
The Plague was around for about 50 years and it hit as hard as no other epedemic, including the current Corona crisis, in just about five years, and ended the Middle Ages giving space for the Renaissance.
From the Tower of London to the St. Peters Basilica in a nutshell...
It is hard to impossible to predict how Corona will further develop and as many saw Omicron coming as the epedemic in the first place. Until now world society keeps ignoring all worst case scenarios and keeps heading down a road trying to go back to normal alienating me and alike even more in the future.
There is only one thing for sure, I do not wan't to go back to Pre-Corona normal.
The Plague relative to travel time, guessed by me
Google Maps sais that it takes on a bicycle from Naples to London, which is about travel time on an ox wagon in the middle ages, I guess.
about 120h
Google Maps sais that it takes in a car from Naples to London, which is the most common used contemporary equivalent to an ox wagon, I guess.
about 22h
Google Maps sais that it takes by airplane Naples to London, which is the virus spreading route
3h
120h to 50y is 22h to 9y and 3h to 1.25y
My thought was to put, as a worst case scenario, the Plague relative to its presents in Europe in relation to Corona. The main difference is that the Plague spread on main trade routes, which are today faster than in the Mid Ages.
The trip from Naples to London by boat takes about 16d17h or 401h by 6 knots average cruising speed of a sail boat instead of 3h by plane, both calculated today. While the average cargo ship by 20 knots average speed equals bicycling time quite precisely and even more goods were transported on ox wagons than by boat and today by cars or train than boats.
If this thought is correct, than the Corona virus might stay for only another quarter spreading within 1.25 years or up to 9 years all together.
?
The real question so, is how will Corona change society?
I well understand that, as in the times of the Plague, the rich and powerful have no interest to change and intend to go back to normal as quickly as possible. Greta keeps talking and we will have no choice where ever we put our money. Only fossile fuels and no ethanol, battery cars on electricity based on a fossile or nuclear power grid, food from only a hand full companies and pretty much no innovation, nothing new to buy since the computer hit our homes.
Industrialisation was mass production and innovation exchanging the candle or oil lamp with an electric bulb, the horse back with an automobile, books for a few with public libraries all available and affordable by many.
Information age failed to establish the same gain for the Dollar. Google only covers an estimated 4% of all information stored in the internet and it's ability to find anything out of the ordinary is way worse than understanding how to use the index of a library. The digital economy created monopoles way faster than in Marx worst nightmares outpacing all factory based industries in lightning speed, even so our very fundamental principle of market system is competition and in the end of the day our connected computers are hardly more than type writers and game tables.
Both industrialisation and information age failed to lift the very majority of mankind off poverty still having 80% living on 10 Dollars a day.
I am convinced that we are past our peak considering that the leading European economy fails to set up it's major important infrastructure projects in time no matter, if using industrial age or information age technology.
The Plague spread, because rats were accepted everywhere, despite them stinking, attacking and destroying food reserves in a most obvious manner, today Corona spreads, because nobody manages to be alone and to stay separated in safe distance, even so the virus is known to spread over air in short distances.
Hygiene - socialising.
(2)If I remember correctly the Mid Ages were also a peak time of fake hygiene products. Real pure soap is to day curp soap and most products sold as soap also have other ingredients like perfume or creams, yet soap is soap and make up is make up. In the Mid Ages markets were full of creams and pastes that were supposed to heal everything and all, yet of course didn't, while rats were all over the same market and considered no issue creating the mid ages equivalent of todays protest demonstrations, office space and party events.
Virus spreading hot spots...
(1)The Plague struck very differently from town to town and I assume that those towns quickly getting into pest control by hunting rats with traps or e.g. dogs and cats, protecting public and private spaces from stinky rats by keeping doors closed and securing and maintaining food storage, by establishing and cleaning the fresh and drain water system, managed to go through the black death with a lesion learned and no major death toll.
Today, all those that do not ignore the basic and most effective way against Corona of staying away from masses and even larger groups will be tomorrow those successful towns, yet living in between all others in a way more mobile world of today.
Ignorance is no bliss..
The dictionaries defines dramatic and fundamental change as a revolution and history books taught me that such fundamental changes as revolutions come violant, pretty much always.
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"So, where do you see yourself in 10 years?"
"..."
"Did you understand the question?"
"Yes. I just don't know any honest answer"
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(1)"The rate of mortality from the Black Death varied from place to place: whereas some districts, such as the duchy of Milan, Flanders, and Béarn, seem to have escaped comparatively lightly, others, such as Tuscany, Aragon, Catalonia, and Languedoc, were very hard-hit. Towns, where the danger of contagion was greater, were more affected than the countryside, and within the towns the monastic communities provided the highest incidence of victims."
Britannica.com
(2)Hardly anytime in history was of more change of monastic (religious like monks) communities than the time of the Plague and thereafter, I conclude when reading about the times from Mid Ages to Reformation on the Roman Cathlic Church.
See: Britannica.com
